Tips for Busy People

May 2010 - The Year of the Tigress - Be the Grandest Year of Your Life

As i walked down the street today, i observed the Trees and it reminded me of a special relationship that was triggered during a visit to India in 2008.

Hope you enjoy the lesson - Spiritual Teachings – The Tree

Roots that grow and ground into mother earth, a trunk that defies gravity and grows upwards, branches that stretch out and add horizontal, gravity defying grace, leaves that protect and represent life.

A tree will remove toxic CO2 gases from a human and will nurture with energizing, life giving oxygen.

A tree is divine, is enlightened and is just is being a tree, no ego, just being!

All enlightened masters have mentioned their divine relations with trees and many have experienced the moment of awakening in the presence of a tree.

Looking for some great counsel, sit next to a tree, and simply breath.

Seeking some compassion, hug a tree and breath in the nurturing air.

Life a little too busy, too chaotic, too exhausting, slow down, have a date with a tree and see what divine wisdome is shared with you.

During a recent visit to Poona, i was drawn to a lovely book called “Tears of the Mystic Rose” that included an insightful footer Rajneesh Reveals Osho. The books is available online http://www.oshorajneesh.net/thebook.htm - and i would like to thank the author Rajneesh for sharing his wisdom, insights, and stillness with me!

En joy the Moment Next to a Tree and Remember to Breath, Be Still and NOTICE!
Dave

Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day


"anger, injustice, sadness, fear, inequity, frustration, apathy such magnificent teachers in this world of humanity and spirited ascension - embrace them, feel them, explore them, learn from them, and then let them go with love and light"


- Dave Rogers

Rare not boring football footage

Spirit of Women's Football

Thoughts for the Day

Thoughts for the Day



The process of getting there is the quality of being there.



Everything I do bring me aliveness and growth.



I create money and abundance though joy, aliveness, and self love.



Quotes from Orin

Teenager Tales - The Amazing Singapore Garage Sale

Teenager Tales - The Amazing Singapore Garage Sale




Last month, my 16 year old nephew asked if he could visit from Canada for some quality time with his Uncle Dave.

Two weeks ago, we decided to work on a project along with my nine year old, the project a Garage Sale on Sun Aug 30 - so we planned the signs, the flyers, the products, the lemonade stand, the marketing, distribution and layout of the space. This week we started the implementation and I must admit, it has been a wonderful stretch.

Working with a 16 yr old is amazing, especially my nephew as he does operate on a different software, hardware and communication paradigm than his Uncle Dave. I introduced him to LOVE LANGUAGES by Gary Chapman, and we were not surprised to find out that his love languages are quality time and acts of service. As a supporter profile, he is keenly interested to be with people, support them and be part of the team.

Today i came up with the APE Model -- awareness, presence, and enthusiasm - as i chose to catch myself at least 10 times, interrupt my natural tendency to be a big APE where I wanted to lecture him, tell him how i did it when i was 16 years old, and make HIM WRONG -- great lessons from my nephew, blessed indigo being, that he is!


Last night, i shared with him a little dvd on indigo children and he found it curious and fascinating. Today, he asked about aura's, intuition, and commented that he has never healed anyone. I smiled and reflected that from my perspective he has been healing, guiding, and serving people, especially his immediate family since he arrived on the planet in 1992. He smiled, shook his head, and went back to finish his final plate of sushi.


Reflecting on the time with Alex, with hand on heart, my feeling is Thank you, Thank you, Thank you!

Influence of the Moon - Perspectives

Greetings - i just completed a pleasant bike ride at 5 am this morning and as i cycled, i noticed the brightness of the star, so much so, that my bike ride was interrupted by a overwhelming urge to meditate and commune with the stars, especially since my pal the moon was no where to been seen this morning.

So, at 555am this morning, i experienced a lovely connection with the various stars and it led me to some healthy curiosity about the moon cycles.


A little google search when i arrived back home from the ride and later and i came upon a varying degree of opinions about the effects from the moon - one discusses the moon and it effects and one a scientific paper that debunks any influence of the moon


- a highlight from the moon friendly report
Overview for Aug 2009: Jupiter, transitioning retrograde into Capricorn,
brings to an end the three month 'vacation' people took from the harsh realities of the economic down turn. A much more realistic perspective will prevail, with impact seen at the malls and back to school shopping - which means savings will increase and focus will be on working hard, rather than consumption. People may be seen to be a bit more stressed in the second half, leading to a few more differences of opinion than usual. President Obama will have a window of opportunity to push through his proposals between August 16th and October 5th - beyond which he will come across increasing opposition until next summer.

The full article is at
http://www.nafella.com/naflogger/?StarGazer/Moon_Sign_Monthly_Forecast_August_2009


While our scientist friends offer some convincing "scientific evidence that

"...spooky effects have been ascribed to the phases of the moon....But when the statistics are redone properly, the correlation with lunar phase always evaporates....Yet many sensible people—including police officers and emergency room staff—continue to believe otherwise." --Steven Strogatzhave "

Enjoy the review at http://skepdic.com/fullmoon.html



Welcome your thoughts, feelings and experiences with Mr or Mrs Moon


Smiles, Prayers and Blessings,
Dave


ps..see ya at the full moon ceremony in mexico!

Insights and Distinctions from I CAN DO IT with Hay House in Alaska - July 11 - 18, 2009

Insights and Distinctions from I CAN DO IT with Hay House in Alaska - July 11 - 18, 2009 


Back to Land and some time to process and integrate the voyage to Alaska with some of the world's premier energy workers from the Hay House Publications team.
I am thrilled to be sitting in my hotel room in Seattle, getting ready to board my flights back to Singapore, and allowing myself some valuable time to review the week, high light some of my key learnings and distinctions and set some intention, initiatives, plans to integrate some of the teachings into my daily life in a loving, caring, and serving manner. I had a wonderful time on the cruise, accompanied by my brother Mike Handcock, and in the presence of the greatness of ten of the leading published light workers on the planet, about 250 aspiring writers, and approximately 1500 evolving and shining spirits consisting of amazing Holland America crew, participants of the I CAN DO IT cruise and the Hay House staff.
I participated on the YOU CAN HEAL YOUR LIFE track and had the honor of attending keynote presentations and learning from the following best selling authors. Some of the my key distinctions are recorded below. At the end of this note, I will also share what award that Mike won for his contribution and support at the week long event.
Thank you for a great time at Sea.

Key Learnings from the Platform

Louise Hay
The Grand Dame of personal development and the founder of Hay House Group of Companies launched the "You Can Heal Your Life" program with elegant and grace. In her heartfelt welcome, Louise shared her heart felt appreciation and gratitude to the hundred plus audience aboard the Holland America Line's cruise to Alaska. I was moved with her sincerity, poise and presence. At 80++, Louise Hay is inspiring, gorgeous and a shining light in the ascension movement that is currently transforming the planet.
Memorable Moment
Arriving for Louise's keynote the first keynote of the program and "coincidentally" sitting right behind her. And then having the opportunity to thank her and get a picture with her.
Question of Curiosity
What are your plans for China and India and other non english speaking countries?

Caroline Myss
Hard hitting, direct, and challenging, Caroline Myss does not mixed or mince her words. Article, clear and concise in her presentation, I found Caroline's keynote engaging and highly perscriptive. I love her approach to chakra energetics (base, sacral solar plexis, heart, throat, third eye, and crown) and have found her research and sharing insightful, especially her personal stories and ability to use the abrasive approach to "awaken" or "shift" participants. The use of the 7 Deadly Sins as a metaphor for the dark side of each chakra was innovative and definitely triggered some conversation, debate, and discussion for me with other participants on the workshop.
Memorable Moment
Meeting Caroline at the Crow's Nest, the adopted home of Mike and I for the I CAN DO IT at Sea Cruise, and getting tongue tied while sharing a story to Caroline and her friends. Not my greatest moment, though a memorable moment. Key learning is breath, smile, and ask questions vrs try to impress, tell person stories, and speak too quickly. Thank you for the lesson.
One the bright side. Mike and I did make several great friends at the Crow's Nest including the bar crew, the music crew and for Mike the clean up crew. In fact, Mike was the winner the most generous drinking at the Club and ran up a four figure bar bill.
Question of Curiosity
Caroline, does anyone intimidate you? Or do you get nervous? And what advice would you give people who get intimated or nervous in front of others, especially during first meetings?

Dr Brian Weiss
Brian's academic and professional credentials are amazing - bachelors, masters, doctorates, head of the Psychiatric departments at Universities and nationally in the United States. On paper Brian has turbo charged credentials and a resume that is awe inspiring. In person, Brian has a demeanor, a presence, and a voice that is welcoming, comforting, and hypnotically awe inspiring. In his keynote, Brian displayed a lovely sense of humor, often joking about his "high energy" approach and respectfully moved the group through a series of regressions in our early childhood, into our womb experiences and then into a past life regression. Brian demonstrated the process with professionalism, respect and care, and I thoroughly enjoyed the experience.
For the child experience, I went back to a joyful experience as a young ice hockey player participating in a tournament in North Bay Ontario. As a fetus, vibrational memories suggested some the angst and challenges that my mother experienced, especially with my father and his difficulties in shifting from a teenager to a responsible father. The final regression I went back to a specific scene, my funeral in Ireland in 1737. I was a mother of three young children, and had just passed over to the other side and I was able to notice some key friends, associates, and family members from this life time in that time.
Memorable Moments
From my brief encounters, Brian Weiss is Brian Weiss on or off the platform. I met him a number of times around the ship and each time I found him cordial, unassuming, and pleasantly present.
Question of Curiosity
Brian, what are you currently doing in your life that is stretching you beyond your comfort zone?

Iyanla Vanzant
I loved the dance of Iyania. Eloquence and grace with power and force - her talent is sharing her personal story with enthusiasm, humor, and compassion as it gives her and the audience the opportunity to dance, laugh, and feel the power of the holy spirit.
Ivania is blessed with a magnificent, hearty, blessed laugh, and an infectious smile that places the audience into a warm, welcoming, hypnotic state. She expresses humanity with the insights and distinctions of a person who has moved through a challenging and hard life. I enjoyed her presentation as her everyday, every minute approach to spirituality is refreshing, sincere, and inspiring.
Throughout her presentation, she demonstrates how she invites spirit into her beingness and works with spirit to shine brightly in her life, especially in times of her hardships, heartbreaks, and humiliating experiences that has allowed her to be the person she is and is being on a daily basis.
Memorable Moments
Accompanying Iyania and her pal Shishilla (aka Lynda) on the whale watching tour in Juneau. We had a lovely time to chat and I loved being in their space. Two friends, enjoying the time together and apart and being their for each other. We were blessed with a hump back whales, full breach less than 50 metres from our boat. A blessed moment for all those who witnessed it, even the Captain was amazed with the magic moment. As for me, I was below deck nursing my sea sickness and enjoying the sounds of music.
Question of Curiosity
Love and light to you, your spirit and your hip. Thank you for working through the pain. If i had one question today, it would be what divine messages are you getting regarding your health and well being? If you are open to alternative methods, i would love to introduce to you to Angela Zhang, a former Chinese army medical professional currently living and changing lives in New Zealand. She is brilliant, dynamic, and fully committed to spreading the effectiveness and efficient methods of naturally healing that utilizes the wisdom and practices of ancient and traditional Chinese Medicine. One visit and she will let you know whether a western operation is the only way. Love and Light!

Dr Wayne Dyer
The Senior Statesman of Personal Development has invested the past 40 years working on himself and sharing his learning with millions of people around the world. What impressed me was that his curiosity remains vibrant and his actions are inspiring. In the past year, as he has moved into his ninth seven year cycle, he has chosen to reengineer his body by letting go of alcohol and has taken up an intensive learning of the ICHING from China.
He shared his approach to learning, his sacred space, his personal stories about Deepak Chopra, Michael Jackson, and living in Maui, his most recent discoveries, insights and distinctions about Eastern Philosophy, and most of all he shared his family with the participants of the cruise. We had an opportunity to dance with his family, gamble with them, sing with them, travel with them, and for this I would like to thank Wayne and his family for joining us on the cruise to Alaska. It was fantastic and so are you.
Yet, after all that, I still heard some people complaining about Wayne Dyer, not prepared, no new information, only interested in his personal stories. WOW!! As a speaker, author, fellow air breathing human being, what a re-learning for me. No matter what one does, one can not please all the people all the time. In the past six months, a statistic of 1/3 will love you, 1/3 will hate you , and 1/3 wont care has entered my world. For Wayne's world, it is more like less that 1% will not like his material, yet when you have reached more that 50 million people, it still means 500,000 might have some unpleasant things to say.
To add to Wayne's experience, towards the last 30 minutes of his 2 hour keynote, a participant of the cruise, bless her soul, ran into the Ballroom, ran to the front of the stage and announced the Glacier, the Glacier, everyone come now, we are at the glacier." A few folks immediately left their seats, and headed towards the exits, and Wayne obviously surprised and shaken, smiled, breathed, cracked a little ice hockey humor, and continued with the show. A moment he will not likely forget, though a moment that once again demonstrated his power of presence, being in the now, and professionalism. I shook my head and smiled - good show Wayne, good show!
Thank you for the perspective
Memorable Moments
I enjoyed Wayne's keynote, it was professional, it was relevant, and it was real. I especially loved his willingness to support his daughter and I did feel that her song to him was amazing. Imagine daughter singing to Dad and acknowledging with all of her heart, acknowledging him with her spirit, and acknowledging him with her gift from spirit - her voice! My tear ducts filled and felt that it was truly a magical moment.
Question of Curiosity
Wayne, when that tear stated flowing from your eye, what was the meaning of the tear and what was the feeling for you?

Sonia Choquette
What would you get if you crossed the female energy of Xena the Warrior Princess, the elegance and grace of Julie Andrews in the Sound of Music, with the wisdom and insight of Quanyin and you wrapped it all up and placed it into a red pokka-dot dress slipped on some lovely red Ferragamo high heels?
Close your yes, say "Abaracadabara" and out would pop Sonia Choquette, on stage at the I CAN DO IT AT SEA Hay House Speakers Workshop on Healing.
Sonia's presentation was outstanding, The presentation was challenging and respectful yet encouraged all of the participant to trust her process and be willing to stretch beyond current comfort zones.
By asking us to close our workbooks, not to take notes, and by calling us, the participants, "peeps", Sonia immediately triggered some of my personal buttons such as "I love to take notes", "my notes are important" and "who you calling peeps?" and I almost allow the "ego" to take over and contemplated taking an early leave and head to the Bar.
Fortunately for me, I gave the "ego" a rest, took a deep breath, put on a smile, and choose to have a good play session with Sonia. Sonia programmed is wonderfully designed with energizers of dancing and vocal expression, she allows participants to go deep and personal with trusted sharing and sincere listening, and she imparts divine wisdom from GAIA and the Universe that lightens the spirit and inspires the soul to dance and sing.
Memorable Moments
In response to Sonia's question who likes, who loves to learn? I quickly raised my hand from the back row and was selected to come to the front to collect her book Soul Lessons and Soul Purpose - A Channelled Guide to Why You Are Here. Prior to allowing me to have the book, Sonia looked for some "fair exchange" with a playful smile and asked me to sing a song. I smiled, took a deep breath, closed my eyes, drew on a picture of my son Justin as a baby, and started singing " I Love You, I Love You, I Love Youuu" to the audience. It was probably two minutes, felt like ten, and allowed me to share my love for everyone in the audience, and honor the love that I have for the human spirit. It was a memorable moment for me and I thank Sonia for allowing me to play with her aboard the HS Amsterdam in Alaska.
A side note, I booked a day in Seattle to integrate some of the lessons from the Alaska tour and read Sonia's book and thoroughly enjoyed reading about the 11 Soul Lessons about Creative Power and 11 Soul Lessons for Working with Divine Law. It is a brilliant book with rich lessons and filled with divine messages and practical steps to apply immediately.
Question of Curiosity
What would your like to do in 2010? Where would you like to share your message? And what do you need to do differently to increase your enterprise and allow your message to reach ten times the numbers that you are currently reaching (besides working more with Oprah)?

John Holland
John's keynote is highly interactive with participants in and outside of the hall. John channels messages from beings who have passed over and who have messages for loved ones in the audience. John was open to questions and shared that he is almost like a traffic cop directing messages from beings on the other side and members in the audience.
The essence of John's message is that our loved ones on the other side are fine, they love us, and that they are happy to engage, guide, and be with us. More often than not, our loved ones are proud of us and that they want us to know how much that we are loved. They are not in pain or agony and that it was their choice to cross over and that there is not blame from where they are.
I enjoyed our session though did feel some of the frustration and tiredness for John. Energy is a key component in John's work and I found myself praying and attempting to energize the room for John and for the audience.
Memorable Moments
Mike and I seemed to have made the Crow's Nest on the ship our home office away from home. During our late night sessions, or early morning, we had the great opportunity to meet many fantastic people such as Carlos, Carin, Rex, Shane, Nancy, Linda, Ann, Leila, Jose, Ash, Mimi, Mary Beth, and many others. One particular guy who really made an impact on us is one of John's best friends, confidents, and teachers - Vincent, the psychic's psychic. For me Vincent was like the most valuable player on Team Cruise, he comes off the bench, adds value to each play, gets the best out of each player and rallies the team to victory. It was great to see the friendship between John and Vincent and that they are there for each other verbally, emotionally, energetically and spiritually.

Question of Curiosity
John, if you could anything for a year, what would you do?

Cheryl Richardson
Practical, pragmatic, and laser like in her assessments and advice giving, Cheryl Richardson demonstrated heart communication, gratitude and professionalism in her keynote.
Cheryl 's presentation blends her personal story with many specific examples of how she has utilized learning, mentoring, coaching, teaching, and the "how to" approach to getting where she wants to go. The on stage coaching was effective and helpful though I did find that getting folks into there nearest 12 step program a little bit peculiar and seemed prescriptive rather than tailored.
Memorable Moment
Cheryl's final exercise was an excellent way to bring the session to a close. Her action plan for people to really put into action some simple yet effective steps, combined with some personal accountability was brilliant.
Question of Curiosity
Who is your booking agent?

To all the teachers thank you for the distinctions. To all the new friends, see ya when we see ya.

Love and light,
Dave




Love and light,

Dave Rogers

"Inspiring the Spirit of Enterprise"
www.daverogers.net
www.continualshift.com
www.coachdaverogers.blogspot.com

How To Thrive and Grow during the GFC Teleseminar

Are you still trying to figure out how to GET AHEAD in this “Global Financial Crisis”?

Are you unclear on what you should be doing RIGHT NOW to “fix” your business?

I would like to invite you to join me on a 1 hour tele-seminar to hear what you can be doing right now to take advantage (yes, that’s right, take advantage) of one of the greatest opportunities we have seen in our lifetimes – the Global Financial Crisis.

How can this be “the GREATEST OPPORTUNITY” I hear you ask.

Did you know that there are businesses out there right now that are THRIVING and GROWING in this very economic climate?

Wouldn’t you want to know what they are doing differently to everyone else?

These businesses are going ahead because they understand WHERE they are right now, WHAT they should be doing and what is COMING NEXT. It is because they understand the application of Wealth Dynamics. 

Here is what you will hear about on the call:

• How entrepreneurs are making money from Social Media
• How teams of highly skilled people are coming together because of belief in purpose
• How certain business models are outdated and failing whilst new models are succeeding
• What markets are looking for new ideas and products and what to stay away from

I will be joined by author, speaker, social entrepreneur, and founder of Rock Your Life, Mike Handcock. Mike has traveling around the world the past five years, meeting with social media experts, applying the principles of Wealth Dynamics, specifically from a STAR perspective. In this call he will be sharing actual  applications of social media and how they are totally changing his business.  

This is the ONLY time in 2009, Mike  has available to do this call with me, so it is definitely something you will not want to miss.

I hope you can join us for the whole hour so you can be one of the LUCKY few who will get a SPECIAL opportunity to find out even more about applying Wealth Dynamics and the new social media in your life and business.

To ensure your place on this call, register here now:
http://davemiketeleseminar.eventbrite.com/

Have a brilliant day.

 

 

 

Dave Rogers

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Deals with Heart - Thailand

KIA ORA from Thailand 

Kind Thanks

Heartfelt thanks to Martin, Sarah, and Martin for coordinating the "Deal with Heart" workshop in Bangkok. Please have a look at some of the picture and connect with me at Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=21487&id=1102900131

Inspiring 

Show Up, Step Up and Give Back was inspiring especially in the way that all the participants chose to make a difference in the Lives of at least 5 children from the  Karen Tribe in Northern Thailand - Amazing - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_people

Awareness 

The Magic of the Deal came down to:

1) asking questions

2) playing with the respect of I'm Ok, Your Ok

3) getting it down on paper

4) investing time with people, and 

5) allowing win/win/win/win be the primary deal 

Opportunity 

The number of amazing deals in the retail sector in Thailand, Malaysia (toothbrushes) , Philippines (ethical soaps), Hong Kong and Singapore and with such global players as Tesco, Walmart, Carrefour, and Walgrens was magical. Opportunities for cross border investment opportunities in advertising, social media, and real estate was curious!! For you to increase your opportunities in Asia Pacific in June, check out the ASIA TOUR and GET Your Early Bird Gifts at http://www.eventbrite.com/org/110520264?s=1150105

Result - One Light!

Hock from KL was able to attract a new advisor with experience in the game industry and Mike was able to attract a new connection in Malaysia to learn about government funding, grants and IT related money that is available in Malaysia!

Actions

For May - What are you looking for? 

Who can you connect with this month? 

What would be three great milestones for you in May 2009? 

Think IT, Ink It, Do It, and REVIEW IT with me on 

Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1102900131&ref=profile

or 

http://www.coachdaverogers.blogspot.com

Words From Bill Gross - Bill is to bond investing as Warren is to value investing|

FUTURE OF INVESTING - Evolution or Revolution?

By Bill Cross
 

      
       


The title of this Outlook, "The Future of Investing," is a theme that will take the evolving years to resolve, let alone the next few days. Still, PIMCO is an organization that loves a challenge. All of us here today would agree that the answer to both questions will be highly dependent on the evolution of the global economy, and when it comes to those questions PIMCO has excelled because of its long-term secular outlook. It has paid dividends for our clients for over 30 years and it should do so now as well. The fact is, that the future of investing will depend on the long-term future of the global economy – its nominal growth rate and the distribution of that growth between public and private interests. And so we should start at the beginning, or perhaps at the top, of our top-down process – the future of the global economy.

I. Future of the Global Economy
The future of the global economy will likely be dominated by delevering, deglobalization, and reregulating, yet if so, it is important to state at the outset that we do not envision a mean reversion, cyclically oriented future, but instead a new world where players assume different roles, and models relying on bell-shaped/thin-tailed outcomes based on historical data are less relevant. Historical models look backward while modern-day finance is being fast forwarded and reconstituted almost as we speak.

1.      Deleveraging – The prior half-century of leveraging and the development of the amorphous shadow banking system was growth positive. Major G-10 economies became dominated by asset prices and asset-backed lending most clearly evidenced in housing markets. Excess consumption was promoted, and investment  based on that consumption followed in turn. Savings rates in many countries including Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. fell towards zero as the reliance on rainy day thrift faded. Deleveraging of business and household balance sheets now means those trends must reverse, and as they do, growth itself will slow, bolstered primarily by government spending as opposed to the animal spirits of the private sector.

This topic is one which literally could take hours to discuss, and at PIMCO forums and Investment Committee meetings, it does. There are those of us here as well as highly respected economists outside of PIMCO who would suggest destruction as opposed to slow growth, and they may have a minority, but not insignificant, case. Much depends on the effectiveness of policy responses and the simplistic answer to a simplistic question. Can global financial markets and the global economy heal by pouring lighter fluid on an already raging fire? Can too much debt be cured by the issuance of even more debt? Must the debt supercycle come to an end by crashing and burning or does the world keep breathing with a whimper instead of a bang? We shall see, but there is a near certain probability that the financially based global economy of the past half-century will not return, nor will we experience the steroid driven growth excesses that it facilitated.



2.      Deglobalization – Lost in the wondrous descriptions of finance-dominated, Bretton Woods-initiated, global growth has been the adrenaline push provided by global trade and indeed portfolio diversification into a multitude of markets – developed or developing. Yet historians point out that globalization is not an irreversible phenomenon – witness the aftermath of WWI and nearly three decades of implosion. Now the beginning signs of trade barriers – "Buy American" and "British jobs for British workers" among them – as well as government support of locally domiciled corporations (banks and autos) suggest an inward orientation that is less growth positive. Additionally, "financial mercantilism" is an added threat – a phenomenon that speaks to growing pressure on banks to retreat from international business and concentrate on domestic markets.



3.      Reregulation – Academics, politicians, investors, central bankers and everyday citizens are questioning the economic philosophy that idolized free markets and their ability to self-regulate. The belief in uncapped and unregulated incentives producing unlimited upside but nearly always cushioned downside losses is fading. While Sarbanes-Oxley was a well publicized but relatively toothless response to the dot-com bust of nearly a decade past, today's politicians have gained the upper hand, driven by a citizenry that has recognized the unbalanced, disproportionate distribution of incomes. The efficient market thesis, so prevalent in academic theory and market modeling is now in retreat, and perhaps rightly so. In its place, we will experience less efficient but hopefully less volatile economies and markets – monitored and controlled by government regulation. Executive compensation, of course, is just the poster child. Government ownership and control of vital financial and manufacturing institutions will politely be described as "industrial based" policy and "burden sharing," but we should have no doubt that we will move significantly away from the free market model that has dominated capitalistic countries for the past 25 years.

With the top-down framework for future global economic growth in place, let's take a look at PIMCO's outlook for the future of investing – evolution or revolution.

II. The Future of Investing
Whether evolution or revolution it is important to recognize that the aftermath of an economic and investment bubble transitioning from levering to delevering, globalization to deglobalization and lax regulation to reregulation leads to an across-the-board rise in risk premiums, higher volatility and therefore lower asset prices for a majority of asset classes. The journey to a new stasis is a destructive one insofar as it affects previously assumed wealth. Rough estimates suggest that as much of 40% of global wealth has been destroyed since the beginning of this delevering process. In essence, asset prices, which are really only the discounted future value of wealth creation, go down – not only because that wealth creation slows down but because it becomes more uncertain. In such an environment, equity interests in the form of stocks, real estate or even high yield bonds become re-rated. Those who believe that capitalism is and will remain a going concern and that risk taking – over the long run – will be rewarded, must recognize that those rewards spring from beginning prices and valuations that correctly anticipate the global economy's future growth path and volatility. In terms of that old maxim "buy low – sell high," this means at the minimum that an investor during this period of re-rating must "buy low."

In turn, investor preferences towards risk taking, even when correctly calculated and modeled must be considered. Peter Bernstein has for several years counseled that policy portfolios structured for the long run and based on historical return statistics should be reconsidered. The standard pension or foundation approaches to policy portfolios are being challenged, he asserts, and PIMCO agrees. Stocks for the long run? Home prices that cannot go down? The inevitable levering of asset structures to double or quadruple returns relative to risk-free assets? These historical axioms must now be questioned. In fact, as of March 2009, the superiority of risk-asset returns are not what many assume them to be. For the past 10, 25, and 40 years, for example, total returns from bonds have exceeded those for common stocks.1 Home prices have declined a staggering 30% since their peak in late 2006, and have barely kept up with inflation for the last century according to Case-Shiller statistics. Commercial real estate when ultimately mark-to-market over the next several years will likely show similar results. In short, our stereotyped conceptions of what makes money are being challenged. As Bernstein says, there is no predestined rate of return. And a PIMCO corollary would counsel that future rates of return will be dependent on the beginning price and future growth rates and risk preferences that cannot necessarily be derived from historical models. Government policies will also play an important role, especially insofar as they impact long-standing property rights and capital structures. What I have previously described as a CQ – a common sense quotient – may take precedence over IQ and quantitative analysis in future years. How much of a benefit, for instance, did the renowned risk modeling of some of our major competitors produce over the past several years in terms of their bond funds and derivative-related products as compared to PIMCO's?  We invite comparison, not only of our own risk models, but our collective common sense quotient.

What then does commonsense tell us about future asset returns? Let's revisit our previous conclusions on the developing environment for some clues. They include: delevering, deglobalization, reregulation leading to slow global growth, a heightened risk aversion, a distrust of conventional investment model portfolios, and a greater emphasis on surviving as opposed to thriving. If valid, then an investor or an investment committee would likely stress the bird in the hand – as opposed to the one in the bush; stable and secure income – as opposed to uncertain capital gains; a government-regulated utility model – as opposed to innovative yet risky venture capital investments. At current price levels, to cite one example, the current income from corporate bonds is higher and certainly more secure than the dividend income from stocks.2 A return to an era reminiscent of the first half of the 20th century is not unimaginable where stocks were viewed as subordinated income producers with yields exceeding their senior bond companions on the liability ladder.

But let me not go too far in suggesting that asset classes near the perimeter of risk have no future. They do if only because they eventually will be priced right. In fact, PIMCO intends to participate in the management of many of them, and as argued previously should be well and healthily positioned to do so. Our recent launch of a global multi-asset fund featuring tail-risk protection is just one example. The potential participation in TALF and other government-sponsored levered structures is another. Still, the tide seems to be going out and as Buffet suggests, all swimmers are being exposed, swimming suits or bare-bottomed naked.

There are a host of investment implications that one can subjectively conclude from this outgoing tide, although they have not been officially endorsed by our upcoming secular forum. It seems to me, though, that one has only to ask what investments were positively affected by the previous long-term cycle of levering, deregulation, and globalization in order to imagine which ones will do poorly as the trends reverse. A short list might read as follows:

1.      The Dollar – As the center of structured finance and the shadow banking system, the dollar was bolstered as it sold paper to the rest of the world. To date, its recent strength seems counterintuitive. Weakness may more accurately describe its future.



2.      Credit – Lax regulation and increasing leverage squeezed risk premiums and spreads to historically overvalued levels. We are now moving in full reverse.



3.      Equity – In addition to the previous conclusions, it is evident in retrospect that narrow risk premiums in credit markets facilitated narrow equity premiums in stocks if only because they seemed cheap by comparison and allowed corporations to borrow cheaply and buy back their own stock.



4.      Emerging Market Globalization and lax lending standards re-rated emerging and developing country financial markets to unrealistic levels. Eastern Europe is likely the first to fall.

Many of these trends, of course, have now reversed course, direction, and magnitude, and there will come a point where those low and lower prices, as well as the potential for successful policy healing, will favor what is now in disfavor. For now, however, let it be simplistically said that the trend is your friend and that the ad hoc, disjointed and anemic policy responses of government appear to be too little, too late. Investors should therefore favor stable income as opposed to speculative growth or the subordinate liability structures of most private market balance sheets. Shake hands with the government is and has been our motto although the contractual certainty of a government handshake may now be questioned in an increasingly number of marginal areas.

Another way to summarize our caution would be to quote a recent comment by Barton Biggs. "I am a child of the bull market," he said which upon further elaboration meant that he bought on cyclical dips with the expectation of riding mean reversion to an upward sloping trend line of prosperity and ultimately higher peaks. In a sense, we are all children of the bull market, although some of us are more mature than others – a bull market of free-enterprise productivity and innovation, yes, but one fostered by a bull market in leverage, deregulation and globalization that proved unsustainable in its excesses. We now must view ourselves as chastened adults, forced into acknowledging a new reality that is dependent upon bear-market delevering and debt liquidation to deliver us to our new and ultimate restructured destination – wherever it lies. Thus, while historians might describe these years as an evolution, for those of us living it day-by-day it most assuredly has the feel of a revolution. Much like Irving Fisher's "permanently higher plateau" of prosperity that was quickly turned on its head in 1929, those who would forecast a "permanently lower valley" of despair might similarly be off the mark. Yet there should be no doubt that the bull markets as we've known them are over and that the revolution is on. Investing is no longer child's play.

William H. Gross
Managing Director